An Inexact Two-Stage Allocation Model for Water Resources Management Under Uncertainty

摘要

In this study, an inexact two-stage allocation model is put forward for supporting decisions of water resource planning and management. Two processes and three phases with the associated net costs are considered in the optimization model. The proposed model is derived from incorporating interval parameters within a two-stage stochastic programming framework, which can tackle uncertainties in forms of interval parameters and distributions of probability. It can also support the analysis of the policies that are related with different levels of economic consequences as the pre-decisions are violated. In other words, the proposed model is an effective link between policy and economic penalty. By applying the model into a case of water resources allocation, the results indicate that the water shortage quantity and net cost of each process in different exploit probability levels have been generated. Therefore, the simulative results are valuable for the adjustment of the existing water allocation issues in a complicated water-resource system under uncertainty.