Multi-Level Decision-Making for Inter-Regional Water Resources Management with Water Footprint Analysis and Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

摘要

This study develops a synergistic optimization framework for planning inter-regional water resources management system under shared socioeconomic pathways; this framework integrates multi-level and robust flexible programs. The upper-level model determines minimum social loss induced by water exploitation, the middle-level one focuses exclusively on pollutant emissions, and the lower-level one aims to achieve maximum economic benefits. An improved multi-level interactive algorithm is proposed to balance the satisfaction degree of constraints and goals to achieve optimal. The effectiveness of the developed multi-level model is illustrated through a real-world case in Wuhan City Circle. Results indicate that the overall water resources performance in Wuhan City Circle is satisfactory, especially in Xianning and Huanggang, whereas some water footprint deficits exist in Wuhan, Xiaogan, and Tianmen. Climate scenarios have a remarkable effect on social loss but only slightly affect water supply strategies, pollutant emissions, and economic benefits. A high satisfactory degree results in a low risk of insufficient water supply and excessive pollutant emissions. Thus, satisfactory degree can be used as an evaluation indicator for identifying the amount of credible and reliable risk on final decisions. The findings of this study can enable stakeholders to grasp the inherent conflicts and trade-offs between environmental and economic interests.