Value of time and reliability for urban pooled on-demand services

摘要

The uptake of on-demand services is increasing rapidly all over the world. However, the market share of their pooled version (ridesharing, e.g., UberPOOL or LyftLine) is still low, despite its potential in addressing the mobility challenges that dense urban cities are facing. In this research, we analyse user preferences towards pooled on-demand services regarding their time-reliability-cost trade-offs. We study, via stated preference experiments, the value of time (VOT) and value of reliability (VOR) of the different trip stages (waiting stage, in-vehicle stage, and transfer stage when combined with line-based public transport). We target urban Dutch individuals (N = 1006), and address commuting and leisure trips. Results show in-vehicle VOT for pooled on-demand services to amount to 7.88-10.80 (sic)/h. These values are somewhat higher than known values of traditional public transport. We also find waiting VOT (both before the trip and during the transfer stage) to be lower than values previously reported in literature. In general, we find VOR to be lower than VOT: the reliability ratio (VOR/VOT ratio) for both the waiting stage and the in-vehicle stage being around 0.5. In order to understand different preferences, we also estimate latent class choice models. The analysis shows that the main difference between classes pertains to the overall time-cost and reliability-cost trade-offs (VOT and VOR values) rather than in different valuations of the reliability ratio. In addition to serving as input for demand forecasting models such as macroscopic static assignment and agent-based simulation models, our findings can support service providers in developing their strategy when designing pooled on-demand services.