Vulnerability analysis and critical area identification of public transport system: A case of high-speed rail and air transport coupling system in China

摘要

The public transport system (PTS) consists of different types of transport subsystems, such as high-speed rail (HSR), air transport (AT), conventional railway, expressway and waterway in a state, which exerts significant impacts on distribution of demographic and economic activities. And its interruption or failure may cause severe social and economic disruption. So the vulnerability analysis of the system attracts an increasing attention. However, most of previous researches mainly concentrate on the vulnerability modeling and analyzing of a single subsystem, neglecting the simultaneous interruption of components, and less considering the complementary effects of other subsystems from systematic perspective and the geographic interdependency among components. For trying to fill these gaps, this paper proposes a method to analyze the vulnerability of PTS composed of two or more transport subsystems and identity the critical area within the system based on the data of running timetable and position coordinates. Finally, taking HSR and AT coupling system in mainland China as a case study, we investigate the differences of vulnerability and critical areas between individual subsystem and overall system. Results reveal that the vulnerability variations and the critical areas distribution of the system are different from these of the subsystems. The research also finds that whether a component is critical depends not only on the system's feature, but also on the component's feature, whether an area is critical depends on economic development and population density of the area. These findings are beneficial to prioritize the plan, budget and maintenance of PTS, and prepare emergency response plans.