Hybrid artificial neural network and locally weighted regression models for lane-based short-term urban traffic flow forecasting

摘要

In recent years, there has been considerable research interest in short-term traffic flow forecasting. However, forecasting models offering a high accuracy at a fine temporal resolution (e.g. 1 or 5 min) and lane level are still rare. In this study, a combination of genetic algorithm, neural network and locally weighted regression is used to achieve optimal prediction under various input and traffic settings. The genetically optimized artificial neural network (GA-ANN) and locally weighted regression (GA-LWR) models are developed and tested, with the former forecasting traffic flow every 5-min within a 30-min period and the latter for forecasting traffic flow of a particular 5-min period of each for four lanes of an urban arterial road in Beijing, China. In particular, for morning peak and off-peak traffic flow prediction, the GA-ANN 5-min traffic flow model results in average errors of 3-5% and most 95th percentile errors of 7-14% for each of the four lanes; for the peak and off-peak time traffic flow predictions, the GA-LWR 5-min traffic flow model results in average errors of 2-4% and most 95th percentile errors are lower than 10% for each of the four lanes. When compared to previous models that usually offer average errors greater than 6-15%, such empirical findings should be of interest to and instrumental for transportation authorities to incorporate in their city- or state-wide Advanced Traveller Information Systems (ATIS).