A Method to Estimate the Number of Passengers for Evaluation of Traffic Rescheduling Plans

摘要

We propose a method to estimate the number of passengers on trains and at stations in dynamic environ- ments for evaluation of traffic rescheduling plans. The method is based on a simulation of train traffic and flow of passengers. Train selecting behavior of passengers is expressed by the Logit model, which is com- monly used in demand forecasting. This method can be used for train operation control, and makes it possible to evaluate traffic rescheduling plans from passengers' point of view. This paper describes an outline of the method together with images of its application.