What about the dynamics in daily travel mode choices? A dynamic discrete choice approach for tour-based mode choice modelling

摘要

The paper presents a heteroskedastic dynamic discrete choice (HDDC) model for tour-based mode choices modelling with an empirical investigation of university students' daily mode choices in Toronto. The reality of connected trips and resulting constrained mode choices are captured through the HDDC framework that is suitable for fitting in an activity-based travel demand modelling system. Data from a web-based travel survey of the students of four universities in Toronto are used. The empirical model highlights the importance of capturing the dynamics in tour-based mode choices modelling. The dynamic model reveals that students' sensitivity to cost vary by trips of the day, while their sensitivity to travel time remains stable. Results of this investigation have policy implications and the proposed methodology has applications in activity-based travel demand modelling.