Uncertainty in drought monitoring by the Standardized Precipitation Index: the case study of the Abruzzo region (central Italy)

摘要

As shown by several authors, drought monitoring by the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) presents some uncertainties, mainly dependent on the choice of the probability distribution used to describe the cumulative precipitation and on the characteristics (e.g., length and variability) of the dataset. In this paper, the uncertainty related to SPI estimates has been quantified and analyzed with regards to the case study of the Abruzzo region (Central Italy), by using monthly precipitation recorded at 75 stations during the period 1951-2009. First, a set of distributions suitable to describe the cumulative precipitation at the 3-, 6-, and 12-month time scales was identified by using L-moments ratio diagrams. The goodness-of-fit was evaluated by applying the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, and the Normality test on the derived SPI series. Then the confidence intervals of SPI have been calculated by applying a bootstrap procedure. The size of the confidence intervals has been considered as a measure of uncertainty, and its dependence on several factors such as the distribution type, the time scale, the record length, and the season has been examined. Results show that the distributions Pearson type III (PE3), Weibull (WEI), Generalized Normal (GNO), Generalized Extreme Value (GEV), and Gamma (GA2) are all suitable to describe the cumulative precipitation, with a slightly better performance of the PE3 and GNO distributions. As expected, the uncertainty increases as the record length and time scale decrease. The leading source of uncertainty is the record length while the effects due to seasonality and time scale are negligible. Two-parameter distributions make it possible to obtain confidence intervals of SPI (particularly for extreme values) narrower than those obtained by three-parameter distributions. Nevertheless, due to a poorer goodness of fit, two-parameter distributions can provide less reliable estimates of the precipitation probability. In any event, independently of the type of distribution, the SPI estimates corresponding to extreme precipitation values are always characterized by a relevant uncertainty. This is due to the explosion of the probability variability that occurs when precipitation values approach the tails of the supposed distribution.