Questions for the Debate on the Future of the UK Strategic Deterrent

摘要

Continuity with existing policy maintained by successive governments and broadly endorsed by all the major political parties would suggest that the UK will continue with a national strategic deterrent. Old threats still remain, and new and unknown threats will continue to emerge. Proliferation continues, bilateral and multilateral arms control processes remain stalled and other nations are developing nuclear weapons. Yet political or economic circumstances could enforce a change of direction by a future British Government before a 'Main Gate' decision had to be taken. Assuming that a decision is taken in favour of continuity of deterrent capability, the UK will need a capability relevant to the variety of new threats. A joint programme with France is highly unlikely on the grounds of risk, cost and differing strategic outlooks. The UK cannot afford a purely indigenous programme, the costs of which are likely to be much higher than a joint programme with the US, which has already proved itself to be highly cost-effective.