The future of the mobile phone Internet: an analysis of technological trajectories and lead users in the Japanese market

摘要

This paper uses the concepts of technological trajectories and lead users to forecast the future of the mobile phone Internet, which has seen substantial growth in Japan and Korea and to a lesser extent in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia. The author interviewed more than 100 firms that provide services, content, and technologies in the Japanese (and to a lesser extent in other mobile Internet markets) and asked them about their market, the technologies they supply or that impact on their market, and their lead users (both intermediate and final users). The author used this information to forecast the evolution of the market in seven content applications: multi-media mail, phones as portable entertainment players, mobile marketing for retailers and manufacturers, multichannel shopping, navigation, phones for obtaining tickets and money, and mobile intranet applications.