The introduction of electric vehicles in Brazil: Impacts on oil and electricity consumption

摘要

The aim of this article is to measure the impact on energy consumption of the introduction of electric vehicles on to the Brazilian market. To this end, a demand forecast model was used under four different scenarios, each scenario pre-supposing a given level of penetration of the hybrid vehifles in the market. It is shown that with the use of electricity for individual transport, a reduction in the consumption of gasoline, in 2030, of 40.7% would be accompanied by an increase in electricity consumption of 31.3% in relation to official projections, which means a reduction of 28.9% in total energy consumption by the national fleet, or approximately 24.6 × 10~6 toe/year. Since one of the main obstacles to the introduction of electric cars in Brazil is the competition with the biofuels program, particularly ethanol, we sought to demonstrate here that electricity could act not as a substitute, but rather a complement for ethanol and gasoline. Despite the significant potential domestic production of fossil fuels in Brazil as a result of the discoveries in the pre-salt, the ethanol and the electricity produced in the country come from renewable sources. This circumstance, together with the fact that their domestic production takes place with minimal dependence on foreign raw materials and lesser price oscillation as compared to petroleum derivatives, makes electrical vehicles an attractive alternative.