Climate extremes in South Western Siberia: past and future

摘要

In this study, the temporal and spatial trends of ten climate extreme indices were computed based on observed daily precipitation and on daily maximum and minimum temperatures at 26 weather stations in South Western Siberia during the period 1969-2011 and, based on projected daily maximum and minimum temperatures, during 2021-2050. The Mann-Kendall test was employed to analyze the temporal trend and a combination of multiple linear regressions and semivariogram functions were used to evaluate the regional spatial trends and the local spatial variability of climate extremes, respectively. The results show that the temperature-based climate extremes increase at a 0.05 significance level while none of the precipitation-based climate extremes did. Spatially, dominant gradients are observed along latitude: The northern taiga vegetation zone experiences a colder and wetter climate while the southern forest steppe zone is drier and hotter. Over time, a tendency towards homogenization of the regional climate is observed through a decrease of the spatial variability for most climate extreme indices. In the future, the most intense changes are anticipated for the bio-climate indicators "growing season length" and "growing degree days" in the north, while the warming indicators, "warm day" and "warm night" are expected to be high to the south.