Analytic science for geospatial and temporal variability in renewable energy: A case study in estimating photovoltaic output in Arizona

摘要

To assess the electric power grid environment under the high penetration of photovoltaic (PV) generation, it is important to construct an accurate representation of PV power output for any location in the southwestern United States at resolutions down to 10-min time steps. Existing analyses, however, typically depend on sparsely spaced measurements and often include modeled data as a basis for extrapolation. Consequentially, analysts have been confronted with inaccurate analytic outcomes due to both the quality of the modeled data and the approximations introduced when combining data with differing space/time attributes and resolutions. This study proposes an accurate methodology for 10-min PV estimation based on the self-consistent combination of data with disparate spatial and temporal characteristics. Our Type I estimation uses the nearby locations of temporally detailed PV measurements, whereas our Type II estimation goes beyond the spatial range of the measured PV incorporating alternative data set(s) for areas with no PV measurements; those alternative data sets consist of: (1) modeled PV output and secondary cloud cover information around space/time estimation points, and (2) their associated uncertainty. The Type I estimation identifies a spatial range from existing PV sites (30-40 km), which is used to estimate accurately 10-min PV output performance. Beyond that spatial range, the data-quality-control estimation (Type II) demonstrates increasing improvement over the Type I estimation that does not assimilate the uncertainty of data sources. The methodology developed herein can assist the evaluation of the impact of PV generation on the electric power grid, quantify the value of measured data, and optimize the placement of new measurement sites.