The relation between length of lockdown, numbers of infected people and deaths of Covid-19, and economic growth of countries: Lessons learned to cope with future pandemics similar to Covid-19 and to constrain the deterioration of economic system

摘要

How is the relation between duration of lockdown and numbers of infected people and deaths of Corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and growth level of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in countries? Results here suggest that, during the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic, countries with a shorter period of lockdown (about 15 days: Austria, Portugal and Sweden) have average confirmed cases divided by population higher than countries with a longer period of lockdown (about 60 days, i.e., 2 months: France, Italy and Spain); moreover, countries with a shorter period of lockdown have average fatality rate (5.45%) lower than countries with a longer length of lockdown (12.70%), whereas average variation of fatality rate from March to August 2020 (first pandemic wave of COVID-19) suggests a higher reduction in countries with a longer period of lockdown than countries with a shorter duration (-1.9% vs. -0.72%). Independent Samples Test reveals that average fatality rate of countries with a shorter period of lockdown was significantly lower than countries with a longer period of lock-down (5.4% vs. 12.7%, p-value＜.05). The Mann-Whitney Test confirms that average fatality rate of countries with a shorter period of lockdown is significantly lower than countries having a longer period of lockdown (U = 0,p-value = .005). In addition, results show that lockdowns of longer duration have generated negative effects on GDP growth: average contraction of GDP (index 2010 = 100) from second quarter 2019 to second quarter of 2020 in countries applying a longer period of lockdown (i.e., about two months) is about -21%, whereas it is -13% in countries applying a shorter period of lockdown of about 15 days (significant difference with Independent Samples Test: t4 = -2.274, p-value ＜ .085). This finding shows a systematic deterioration of economic system because of containment policies based on a longer duration of lockdown in society. Another novel finding here reveals that countries with higher investments in healthcare (as percentage of GDP) have alleviated fatality rate of COVID-19 and simultaneously have applied a shorter period of lockdown, reducing negative effects on economic system in terms of contraction of economic growth. Overall, then, using lessons learned of the first wave of COVID-19 pandemic crisis, this study must conclude that a strategy to reduce the negative impact of future epidemics similar to COVID-19 has to be based on a reinforcement of healthcare sector to have efficient health organizations to cope with pandemics of new viral agents by minimizing fatality rates; finally, high investments in health sector create the social conditions to apply lockdowns of short run with lower negative effects on socioeconomic systems.