Quantifying the impact of climate change on crop yield and water footprint of rice in the Nam Oon Irrigation Project, Thailand

摘要

Northeast Thailand makes a significant contribution to fragrant and high-quality rice consumed within Thailand and exported to other countries. The majority of rice is produced in rainfed conditions while irrigation water is supplied to rice growers in the dry season. This paper quantifies the potential impact of climate change on the water footprint of rice production using the DSSAT (CERES-Rice) crop growth model for the Nam Oon Irrigation Project located in Northeast Thailand. Crop phenology data was obtained from field experiments and used to set up and validate the CERES-Rice model. The present and future water footprint of rice, the amount of water evaporated during the growing period, was calculated under current and future climatic condition for the irrigation project area. The outputs of three regional climate models (ACCESS-CSIRO-CCAM, CNRM-CM5-CSIRO-CCAM, and MPI-ESM-LR-CSIRO-CCAM) for scenarios RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 were downscaled using quantile mapping method. Simulation results show a considerably high increase in the water footprint of KDML-105 and RD-6 rice varieties ranging from 56.5 to 92.2% and 27.5 to 29.7%. respectively for the future period under RCP 4.5, and 71.4 to 76.5% and 27.9 to 37.6%, respectively under RCP 8.5 relative to the simulated baseline water footprint for the period 1976-2005. Conversely, the ChaiNat-1 variety shows a decrease in projected water footprint of 42.1 to 39.4% under RCP 4.5 and 38.5 to 31.7% under RCP 8.5. The results also indicate a huge increase in the future blue water footprint, which will consequently cause a high increment in the irrigation water requirement in order to meet the plant's evaporation demand. The research outcome highlights the importance of proper adaptation strategies to reduce or maintain acceptable water footprints under future climate conditions.