IMPACT OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON RICE AND GROUNDNUT YIELD USING PRECIS REGIONAL CLIMATE MODEL AND DSSAT CROP SIMULATION MODEL

摘要

Impact of climate change on agriculture will be one of the major deciding factors influencing the future food security of mankind on the earth. Climate change studies over the past few decades have mostly focused on regional and local scales which are of paramount importance in assessing the impacts of climate change on agriculture. To assess the impact of climate change in agriculture over Tamil Nadu, outputs of PRECIS Regional Climate Model and DSSAT crop simulation model were used. PRECIS Regional Climate Model was used for downscaling of a domain over the whole Tamil Nadu with a horizontal resolution of 0.22 deg (approx25km). The PRECIS was run from 1960 up to 2098 continuously. However, 28 years of data for 17 grids comprising two districts (Tanjore-6 grids and Tiruvannamalai-11 grids) alone was selectively post processed and used in crop simulation model. The level of CO_(2) enrichment had increased the yield of both crops compared to normal level of CO_(2) (330ppm). There was no definite trend of impact of predicted temperature on both rice and groundnut yield.