CALCULATIONS OF A CHANGE IN CO_2 CONCENTRATION IN THE ATMOSPHERE FOR SOME STABILIZATION SCENARIOS OF GLOBAL EMISSIONS USING A MODEL OF MINIMAL COMPLEXITY

摘要

An improved version of the minimal-complexity model allowing calculations of changes in atmospheric CO_2 concentrations under a given scenario of global anthropogenic emission of carbon dioxide is described. The model is applicable for initial pilot calculations, while detailed global circulation models are to be employed for more precise assessments. The saturation effect is taken into account in computation of the CO_2 flux from the atmosphere to terrestrial reservoirs. Functions for describing changes with time in global emissions connected with fossil fuel burning and cement production as well as changes in land use and land management under no mitigation (new BAU, business-as-usual scenarios) are proposed, and their parameters are estimated using data presented in the literature. Changes in atmospheric concentrations of CO_2 under BAU scenarios and under a set of stabilization scenarios of global emissions are computed. The results could be used in assessing consequences of these changes for the Earth's climate system and life-supporting systems for humans.