山西陆面过程对A1 B排放情景下全球变化趋势的响应

摘要

Shanxi is located in the transitional zone of climate where climate is sensitive and environment is fragile,and its land surface physical process is obviously affected by the climate fluctuation under the background of global warming.Based on the model results of two group experiments from NCAR CCSM IPCC AR4 CLM simulations:CCSM climate of the 20th century run (20C3M)and CCSM SRES A1B 21st century run,the comparative analysis about land surface energy and hydrological variables in the 20th century and the 21st century in Shanxi Province was given out in this paper.The results are as follows:(1)The spatial and temporal distribution of ground temperature in the future in Shanxi could be simulated by the model.The ground temperature would increase and the increase trend in winter would be more than that in summer,and the warming rate would decrease gradually from north to south in winter but from west to east in summer.(2)The net radiation flux in the future would increase more in the northwest than that in the southeast, while the increase rates of precipitation and runoff would be reverse.Latent heat flux would be consistent with evaporation and their in-crease rates would be more great in the southwest region.The distribution of soil moisture content in winter and summer would be re-verse,and the sensible heat flux would show a downward trend and decrease most in southwest region.The net radiation fluxes and la-tent heat fluxes would show increasing trend with different degree,and soil heat flux would increase in winter but decrease in summer. Each component of the land surface water circulation shows increasing trend.%山西地处气候过渡带，气候敏感、生态脆弱，在全球气候变暖背景下其陆面物理过程受气候波动影响十分明显。本文利用NCAR CCSM IPCC AR4陆面分量模式（CLM）20世纪气候模拟（20C3M）和21世纪SRES A1B排放情景下的模拟结果，对山西省21世纪（2001～2099年）与20世纪（1901～1999年）陆面能量和水文变量进行了对比分析。结果显示：（1）模式模拟出山西地区未来地面温度的空间及时间分布特征。未来山西省地面温度呈明显上升趋势，上升速率冬季大于夏季。空间上，增温幅度冬季自北向南递减，夏季自西向东递减；（2）未来山西省陆面各分量空间上，净辐射通量西北增幅大于东南，降水率和径流率则与其相反，潜热通量与蒸发率一致，西南部增加幅度大，土壤含水率冬夏分布相反，感热通量呈下降趋势，西南下降幅度大；时间上，净辐射通量、潜热通量均表现出不同程度的上升趋势，土壤热通量冬季上升，夏季下降；地表水循环的各分量均呈增加趋势。