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Multivariate analyses for infrastructure- based crash- prediction models for rural highways

机译:基于基础设施的农村公路事故预测模型的多元分析

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Crash-prediction models can be used to assess road safety during highway planning and design. The main objective of this study is to develop an Infrastructure coefficient that reflects the overall safety level of a highway and can be used as an independent variable in a crash-prediction model. Infrastructure is defined as the highway and its geometric features. It includes the road alignment, roadside environment, sight distance along the highway, presence of guardrails, number of access points, roadway consistency alignment, lane and shoulder width and percentage of access points with a speed-change lane. These geometric features measure the overall quality of the highway. Two different infrastructure coefficients are developed and calibrated by two different statistical methods. The infrastructure coefficient developed by using the principal component analysis method consists of 11 infrastructure characteristics, and that developed by using the analytic hierarchy process method consists of 5 infrastructure characteristics. For each highway section, a value reflecting its infrastructure quality was calculated according to each of the infrastructure coefficients developed. The results showed a significant correlation between highway infrastructure quality and crash rates. Based on the infrastructure coefficients and crash records, two crash-prediction models are developed. It is suggested that these models can be used to evaluate the safety level of existing or planned highways.
机译:碰撞预测模型可用于在公路规划和设计期间评估道路安全。这项研究的主要目的是开发反映公路总体安全水平的基础设施系数,并将其用作碰撞预测模型中的自变量。基础设施被定义为高速公路及其几何特征。它包括道路路线,路边环境,沿高速公路的视线距离,护栏的存在,出入点的数量,道路一致性的出入,车道和路肩的宽度以及具有变速车道的出入点的百分比。这些几何特征可衡量高速公路的整体质量。通过两种不同的统计方法来开发和校准两种不同的基础设施系数。主成分分析法得出的基础设施系数由11个基础设施特征组成,层次分析法得出的基础设施系数由5个基础设施特征组成。对于每个高速公路路段,根据开发的每个基础设施系数计算一个反映其基础设施质量的值。结果表明,公路基础设施质量与事故率之间存在显着相关性。基于基础设施系数和崩溃记录,开发了两个崩溃预测模型。建议将这些模型用于评估现有或计划中的高速公路的安全等级。

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