Corrosion risk assessment using adaptive bow-tie (ABT) analysis

摘要

Corrosion is a major threat to safety and asset integrity in oil and gas production and processing facilities. This paper proposes a simple, yet practical model for quantitative corrosion risk assessment from safety and economic perspectives. This includes an Adaptive Bow-Tie (ABT) model for the corrosion risk with a specific focus on microbiologically influenced corrosion, along with corrosion economic risk profile. The ABT model is logically tested using corrosion science and statistically verified using a pipeline corrosion database, including cases of corrosion-induced failures. The ABT model also provides opportunities to run root-cause contribution (RCC) analysis and to estimate the probability of corrosion, corrosion-induced failures, and highly probable sequences leading to failure. The model application is demonstrated using a crude oil transportation pipeline system. The study identifies and quantifies parameters that helps to prioritize the actions needed to prevent and control corrosion and avoid failures. The proposed model can serve as an important mechanism to identify, assess, and manage corrosion threat to an asset.