Risk analysis for oil & gas pipelines: A sustainability assessment approach using fuzzy based bow-tie analysis

摘要

Vast amounts of oil & gas (O&G) are consumed around the world everyday that are mainly transported and distributed through pipelines. Only in Canada, the total length of O&G pipelines is approximately 100,000 km, which is the third largest in the world. Integrity of these pipelines is of primary interest to O&G companies, consultants, governmental agencies, consumers and other stakeholder due to adverse consequences and heavy financial losses in case of system failure. Fault tree analysis (FTA) and event tree analysis (ETA) are two graphical techniques used to perform risk analysis, where FTA represents causes (likelihood) and ETA represents consequences of a failure event. 'Bow-tie' is an approach that integrates a fault tree (on the left side) and an event tree (on the right side) to represent causes, threat (hazards) and consequences in a common platform. Traditional 'bow-tie' approach is not able to characterize model uncertainty that arises due to assumption of independence among different risk events. In this paper, in order to deal with vagueness of the data, the fuzzy logic is employed to derive fuzzy probabilities (likelihood) of basic events in fault tree and to estimate fuzzy probabilities (likelihood) of output event consequences. The study also explores how interdependencies among various factors might influence analysis results and introduces fuzzy utility value (FUV) to perform risk assessment for natural gas pipelines using triple bottom line (TBL) sustainability criteria, namely, social, environmental and economical consequences. The present study aims to help owners of transmission and distribution pipeline companies in risk management and decision-making to consider multi-dimensional consequences that may arise from pipeline failures. The research results can help professionals to decide whether and where to take preventive or corrective actions and help informed decision-making in the risk management process. A simple example is used to demonstrate the proposed approach.