Temporal decision-making factors in risk analyses of dynamic positioning operations

摘要

Nearly all dynamic positioning (DP) operations are characterized by limited time available for the DP operator to detect and act upon a loss of position. Collision risk is analyzed with a quantitative risk analysis, which usually does not analyze the human contribution to the risk picture, but rather uses estimates. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the way time (e.g. available time, time required, perceived time available and perceived time required) is addressed in risk analyses for oil and gas DP operations and how this affects safety. The study has found that time required can exceed the time available, and that the effects of perceived time available and perceived time required need to be included in human reliability analysis. In general, awareness needs to be raised around the importance of time. This can be done by including the different aspects of time into risk analyses of DP operations so that effective risk reducing measures can be identified. Furthermore, decision support tools should be developed that integrate the dynamics of the vessel movement over time (time available) and the response time of the operator and system (time required) to address not only what, and how of decision-making, but also when.