Optimizing maintenance and repair policies via a combination of genetic algorithms and Monte Carlo simulation

摘要

In this paper we present an optimization approach based on the combination of a Genetic Algorithms maximization procedure with a Monte Carlo simulation. The approach is applied within the context of plant logistic management for what concerns the choice of main- tenance and repair strategies. A stochastic model of plant operation is developed from the standpoint of its reliability/availability behavior, i.e. of the failure/repair/maintenance processes of its components. The model is evaluated by Monte Carlo simulation in terms of economic costs and revenues of operation. The flexibility of the Monte Carlo method allows us to include several practical aspects such as stand--by operation modes, deteriorating repairs, aging, sequences of periodic maintenances, number of repair teams available for different kinds of repair interventions (mechanical, electronic, hydraulic, etc.), components priority rankings. A genetic algorithm is then utilized to optimize the components maintenance periods and number of repair teams. The fitness function object of the optimization is a profit function which inherently accounts for the safety and economic performance of the plant and whose value is computed by the above Monte Carlo simulation model. For an efficient combination of Genetic Algorithms and Monte Carlo simulation, only few hundreds Monte Carlo histories are performed for each potential solution proposed by the genetic algorithm. Statistical significance of the results of the solutions of interest (i.e. the best ones) is then attained exploiting the fact that during the population evolution the fit chromosomes appear repeatedly many times. The proposed optimization approach is applied on two case studies of increasing complexity.