Uncertainties and quantification of common cause failure rates and probabilities for system analyses

摘要

Simultaneous failures of multiple components due to common causes at random times are modelled by constant multiple-failure rates. A procedure is described for quantification of common cause failure (CCF) basic event probabilities for system models using plant-specific and multiple-plant failure-event data. Methodology is presented for estimating CCF-rates from event data contaminated with assessment uncertainties. Generalised impact vectors determine the moments for the rates of individual systems or plants. These moments determine the effective numbers of events and observation times to be input to a Bayesian formalism to obtain plant-specific posterior CCF-rates. The rates are used to determine plant-specific common cause event probabilities for the basic events of explicit fault tree models depending on test intervals, test schedules and repair policies. Three methods are presented to determine these probabilities such that the correct time-average system unavailability can be obtained with single fault tree quantification. Recommended numerical values are given and examples illustrate different aspects of the methodology.