A computational model for knowledge-driven monitoring of nuclear power plant operators based on information theory

摘要

To develop operator behavior models such as IDAC, quantitative models for the cognitive activities of nuclear power plant (NPP) operators in abnormal situations are essential. Among them, only few quantitative models for the monitoring and detection have been developed. In this paper, we propose a computational model for the knowledge-driven monitoring, which is also known as model-driven monitoring, of NPP operators in abnormal situations, based on the information theory. The basic assumption of the proposed model is that the probability that an operator shifts his or her attention to an information source is proportional to the expected information from the information source. A small experiment performed to evaluate the feasibility of the proposed model shows that the predictions made by the proposed model have high correlations with the experimental results. Even though it has been argued that heuristics might play an important role on human reasoning, we believe that the proposed model can provide part of the mathematical basis for developing quantitative models for knowledge-driven monitoring of NPP operators when NPP operators are assumed to behave very logically.