The Role Of Network Theory And Object-oriented Modeling Within A Framework For The Vulnerability Analysis Of Critical Infrastructures

摘要

A framework for the analysis of the vulnerability of critical infrastructures has been proposed by some of the authors. The framework basically consists of two successive stages: (ⅰ) a screening analysis for identifying the parts of the critical infrastructure most relevant with respect to its vulnerability and (ⅱ) a detailed modeling of the operational dynamics of the identified parts for gaining insights on the causes and mechanisms responsible for the vulnerability. In this paper, a critical presentation is offered of the results of a set of investigations aimed at evaluating the potentials of (ⅰ) using network analysis based on measures of topological interconnection and reliability efficiency, for the screening task; (ⅱ) using object-oriented modeling as the simulation framework to capture the detailed dynamics of the operational scenarios involving the most vulnerable parts of the critical infrastructure as identified by the preceding network analysis. A case study based on the Swiss high-voltage transmission system is considered. The results are cross-compared and evaluated; the needs of further research are defined.