Addressing Imperfect Maintenance Modelling Uncertainty In Unavailability And Cost Based Optimization

摘要

Optimization of testing and maintenance activities performed in the different systems of a complex industrial plant is of great interest as the plant availability and economy strongly depend on the maintenance activities planned. Traditionally, two types of models, i.e. deterministic and probabilistic, have been considered to simulate the impact of testing and maintenance activities on equipment unavailability and the cost involved. Both models present uncertainties that are often categorized as either aleatory or epistemic uncertainties. The second group applies when there is limited knowledge on the proper model to represent a problem, and/or the values associated to the model parameters, so the results of the calculation performed with them incorporate uncertainty. This paper addresses the problem of testing and maintenance optimization based on unavailability and cost criteria and considering epistemic uncertainty in the imperfect maintenance modelling. It is framed as a multiple criteria decision making problem where unavailability and cost act as uncertain and conflicting decision criteria. A tolerance interval based approach is used to address uncertainty with regard to effectiveness parameter and imperfect maintenance model embedded within a multiple-objective genetic algorithm. A case of application for a standby safety related system of a nuclear power plant is presented. The results obtained in this application show the importance of considering uncertainties in the modelling of imperfect maintenance, as the optimal solutions found are associated with a large uncertainty that influences the final decision making depending on, for example, if the decision maker is risk averse or risk neutral.