Evaluating the economic effects of climate change on the European sardine fishery

摘要

This study evaluates the economic effects of climate change on one of the most relevant fisheries of the Iberian Peninsula, the European sardine fishery; a fishing ground that is particularly sensitive to environmental impacts. For this, the sea surface temperature is introduced into the problem as an additional variable. This variable allows for the gathering of climate change evidence and its repercussions on the oceans and, consequently, on the marine life and ecosystems. Various plausible scenarios are posed with respect to the trends involving the sea surface temperature. The results show that if the trend of rising surface temperatures continues in the Iberian-Atlantic fishing grounds, both the sardine biomass and the expected profits will noticeably decrease. The biomass and profits will further decrease with greater intensity if the immediate effects of global warming on sea surface temperature become more significant. On the other hand, in a palliation of global warming scenario, both variables decrease to a lesser degree.