A stochastic model for the Iberoatlantic sardine fishery. Global warming and economic effects

摘要

The literature of natural resources has made wide use of deterministic dynamic models to optimally manage marine fishery resources. However, the ever-changing weather condition and, most importantly, the warming of ocean waters have a significant impact on the evolution of fishery resources. In fact, the latter of the two is a significant random component closely linked to climate change. This paper uses sea surface temperature (from here on SST) to explain the dynamics of the ecosystem biomass in stochastic growth. Observations of SST, biomass, catch and effort in the area of the Atlantic waters bathing the Iberian Peninsula are used to implement the stochastic dynamic optimization theory in a model of production to obtain optimal results for all of these variables in the short and medium term. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.