Quasi-cycles in Chinese precipitation time series and in their potential influencing factors

摘要

Significant quasi-cycles in precipitation time series of 132 climate stations spread over China from 1951 to 2002 have been detected by applying Autocorrelation Spectral Analysis (ASA). By the same method, significant quasi-cycles have also been identified in time series of the potential influencing factors: Southern Oscillation Index (SOI), Sea Surface Temperature (SST) and Sea Level Pressure (SLP). Similarities between some precipitation time series spectra and the spectrum of a potential driving force have been detected; e.g. several series from the Yangtze River's middle reaches show 3-4-year cycles which are similar to the SOI and several SST signals. These time series have been further investigated by low-pass filtering with the Savitzky-Golay filter and by means of correlation analysis. It is proved that the SOI and the SSTs of the Bay of Bengal are in reiatively stable anti-phase. However, no stable link between these signals and the precipitation series in the Yangtze River basin can be detected. Subsequent analyses of 850 hPa winds lead to the outcome that certain wind patterns could either suppress or force the SST and SOI teleconnection signals.