中国建筑能耗时间序列变化趋势及其影响因素

摘要

分析了我国建筑能耗时间序列变化趋势,运用LMDI分解方法对我国2001-2014年的建筑能耗进行因素分解,定量分析了这些因素对建筑能耗的影响程度和影响规律.结果表明:我国建筑能耗呈现持续增长趋势,但年均增速在“十一五”和“十二五”期间明显放缓,人口规模因素、城镇化因素、建筑面积因素、行为因素对其增长均具有显著的正向驱动作用,促使建筑能耗累计增长5.05亿t标准煤;建筑能效则对建筑能耗增长具有抑制作用,促使其增幅降低97％,共节约4.88亿t标准煤.%Analyses the time series change characteristics of building energy consumption,decomposes the influencing factors of building energy consumption in China during the years of 2001-2014 using the LMDI decomposition method,and analyses the influencing extent and regularity of the factors on building energy consumption.The results show that China building energy consumption is increasing continually,but at a slow annual growth rate during the "11th Five-Year Plan" and "12th Five-Year Plan".The factors of population scale,urbanization rate,floor area and human behavior significantly positively impact on building energy consumption,resulting in 505 million tons standard coal increase of building energy consumption.However,building energy efficiency has an inhibition impact on the increase of building energy consumption,contributing to decreasing 97％ of growth rate and reducing 488 million tons standard coal in total.