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Converse trading strategies, intrinsic noise and the stylized facts of financial markets

机译:逆向交易策略,内在噪音和金融市场的典型事实

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摘要

This paper proposes a simple asset pricing model with three groups of traders: chartists who believe in the persistence of bull and bear markets, fundamentalists who bet on a reduction of the observed mispricing, and investors who follow a buy-and-hold strategy. The innovative feature of the model concerns the frequency of trading: rather than remaining constant over time, each agent in a group is only assumed to become active with a certain probability over a given market period. Depending on the trading strategy, part of this elementary kind of intrinsic noise is additive and another part is multiplicative. Using bootstrap and Monte Carlo methods, it is demonstrated that this combination can contribute to explaining the stylized facts of the daily returns on financial markets, such as volatility clustering, fat tails, and the autocorrelation patterns.
机译:本文提出了一个由三类交易者组成的简单资产定价模型:相信牛市和熊市持续存在的图表绘制者,押注减少观察到的错误定价的原教旨主义者以及遵循买入并持有策略的投资者。该模型的创新特征与交易频率有关:不是随时间推移保持恒定,而是仅假设组中的每个代理在给定的市场周期内以一定的概率活跃。根据交易策略,这种基本噪声的一部分是加性的,而另一部分是乘法的。使用bootstrap和Monte Carlo方法,证明了这种组合可以有助于解释金融市场上日收益率的典型事实,例如,波动性聚类,肥尾和自相关模式。

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