不安全操船状態評価の海上交通流シミュレーションへの適用

摘要

不安全操船状態（US：Unsafe　Ship-handling situation）は、換船に対する衝突?乗揚の危険性を表す指標である。国の航路整備計画や地方港湾の港湾計画などにおいては、計画または整備に伴う船舶交通の安全性を検討する一方で、その整備に係る費用便益を計ることが求められていることもあり、現在では、国の航路整備計画や港湾計画改訂に係わる検討において安全性及び期待事故費用を計る目的で広く利用されるようになった。%The Unsafe Ship-handling situation(US) is known as a index that is able to estimate a potential risk of marine accident by calculating frequency of unsafe situation on maneuvering process. In our past study, we were able to find out the correspondence between a marine accident and an US. Actually, it get to use this index in a planning of harbor, traffic route and so on.rnHowever, due to neglect of maneuver's difference, it needs a lot of simulator experiments. In addition, in a real time simulator experiment, it has some limitations such as estimation area, target ship and so on.rnIn this study, we tried to apply traffic simulation to US. Since an US is calculate by a ship's motion (velocity, turn rate, lateral speed etc.) and maneuvering condition (rudder angle, engine motion, thruster etc.), we introduced MMG model to the traffic simulation. We tried to estimate a US by this traffic simulation and we were able to find out the correspondence between a marine accident and US just like the past study.