Nonintrusive Uncertainty Quantification of Dynamic Power Systems Subject to Stochastic Excitations

摘要

Continuous-time random disturbances (also called stochastic excitations) due to increasing renewable generation have an increasing impact on power system dynamics; However, except from the slow Monte Carlo simulation, most existing methods for quantifying this impact are intrusive, meaning they are not based on commercial simulation software and hence are difficult to use for power utility companies. To fill this gap, this paper proposes an efficient and nonintrusive method for quantifying uncertainty in dynamic power systems subject to stochastic excitations. First, the Gaussian or non-Gaussian stochastic excitations are modeled with an Ito process as stochastic differential equations. Then, the Ito process is spectrally represented by independent Gaussian random parameters, which enables the polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) of the system dynamic response to be calculated via an adaptive sparse probabilistic collocation method. Finally, the probability distribution and the high-order moments of the system dynamic response and performance index are accurately and efficiently quantified. The proposed nonintrusive method is based on commercial simulation software such as PSS/E with carefully designed input signals, which ensures ease of use for power utility companies. The proposed method is validated via case studies of IEEE 39-bus and 118-bus test systems.