FEATURE : Fundamentals show multiple outcomes to US gas storage volumes in 2020

摘要

US natural gas storage volumes look to exit winter 2019-20 at nearly 300 Bcf above the five-year average and about 600 Bcf above last year, painting a bearish picture barring the arrival of colder-than-normal temperatures during the last half of the heating season. However, increasing LNG feedgas demand coupled with a recent dip in US production could lead to lower storage volumes than expected and provide support for higher gas prices in 2020, according to S&P Global Platts Analytics. US natural gas inventories started out the winter of 2018-19 at the lowest levels reported by the US Energy Information Administration in at least five years. Not that you could tell by looking at Henry Hub, which yawned at the prospect of low winter stocks, comforted by the cushion of gas coming out of Appalachia and the Permian. With an extra 9 Bcf/d of gas coming out of the ground, it only makes sense the market would begin to reconsider just how much gas needed to be stashed away for the winter, according to Platts Analytics data. Throughout 2019, production grew more than expected, seemingly immune to the persistently low price environment. Northeast production will exit this year 131 MMcf/d higher than the levels that were anticipated this time last year, according to Platts Analytics.