NYMEX light crude futures moved over $60/barrel in May, suggesting that OPEC's failure to reduce output further, in line with its stated targets, might be warranted. According to a Platts survey, OPEC output increased in April by 110,000 b/d to 28.09 million b/d, the first rise in volumes since August 2008. Not all members raised output; increases totaling 180,000 b/d from Angola, Iran, Kuwait, Nigeria and Saudi Arabia were partly offset by 70,000 b/d of output reductions from Algeria, Ecuador, Libya, the UAE and Iraq. rnHowever, while the futures markets may see recovery on the horizon - and OPEC is willing to take advantage -data from key forecasting bodies remains on a downward trend. Most pessimistic of all is the International Energy Agency, which after a huge downgrade to its 2009 demand forecast for crude in April, reduced it further in May to a contraction of 2.6 million b/d. The US Energy Information Administration and OPEC both reduced their forecasts to declines of 1.77 million b/d and 1.6 million b/d respectively. Why the disparity in outlooks?
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