CERA Study Finds no Evidence of Near-Term Peak 'Peak Oil'

摘要

The missing link for understanding the future of world oil supply - a solidly based view of oil field decline rates - has now been filled by a new field-by-field analysis of production data by Cambridge Energy Research Associates (CERA) and IHS Inc. The aggregate global decline rate is 4.5 percent, rather than the eight percent cited in many studies, based upon CERA's analysis of the production characteristics of 811 separate oil fields. "Some of the more gloomy, pessimistic 'peak oil' views about the future of oil supplies that are current today result from an assumption of high decline rates," said CERA Oil Industry Activity Director Peter M. Jackson, author of the Finding the Critical Numbers report. "This new analysis provides the basis for more confidence about the future availability of oil."