Seaborne Products Imports

摘要

In 2015, global seaborne products trade is projected to increase by 5.1% y-o-y to stand at 21.7m dwt. Indian product imports are currently expected to rise by 13% y-o-y to 0.3m bpd in 2015, largely supported by increased gasoline imports. The removal of diesel subsidies towards the end of 2014, coupled with an uptick in gasoline-fuelled vehicle sales (with reports that Indian gasoline demand has risen 14% in 1H 2015), has driven up Indian gasoline imports so far in 2015. Meanwhile, US seaborne product imports have risen by 5% y-o-y in 1H 2015, also largely supported by firm demand for transportation fuels on the back of lower prices. In full year 2015 it is currently expected that US seaborne product imports growth will be slightly more limited than has been the case in the first half of the year, partially due to expectations of some drawdown from stocks. Elsewhere, total European products imports are expected to rise by 5% y-o-y in 2015, to average 6.7m bpd. This is partially supported by an projected increase of 18% y-o-y in UK product imports, on the back of recent consolidation of refinery capacity and relatively steady demand, supported by the low oil price. As a result of these trends, UK seaborne products imports are reported to have risen by over 20% y-o-y in the first half of 2015.