Seaborne Products Imports

摘要

Global seaborne products trade is estimated to have grown by 1.3% in 2018, with the pace of expansion having been limited by falling Southeast Asian imports. However, shipments into the region are expected to return to growth in 2019, whilst imports into Latin America and the Middle East are also expected to expand, helping to support an expected uptick in the pace of growth in global seaborne products trade to 3.0% in 2019. In 2020, seaborne products trade is expected to be supported by continued growth in refinery capacity, whilst changes to trade patterns related to the IMO 2020 global sulphur cap are also expected to have a significant impact. Seaborne trade in fuel oil (which accounts for c.25% of seaborne products trade) is expected to fall due to the projected decline in consumption for bunkers, although a potential rise in demand for other uses (e.g. power generation in the Middle East) could help offset this to an extent. Meanwhile, increased demand for compliant fuels in major bunkering hubs is expected to support higher gasoil trade volumes, with the net global impact of higher gasoil and lower fuel oil trade initially estimated at around +0.3m bpd, boosting the projected rate of growth in global seaborne oil products trade in 2020 from around 3% to 4.0% in the 'base case' scenario.