Expert perceptions of the 'freak' wave myth on Australia's rocky coasts

摘要

Hazardous rocky coasts are a leading site for coastal drowning deaths worldwide. Between 2004 and 2017, 149 rock fishers have drowned on Australia's rocky coasts, making rock fishing one of Australia's deadliest sports. Most portrayals of drowning frame the event with high-energy waves inundating shore platforms, washing fishers off balance and into the ocean. The physical risk of overtopping waves is known, yet few studies have explored how fishers perceive overtopping wave hazards, or how experience influences those perceptions. Using semi-structured interviews (n = 52) with rock fishers of varying experience, this study explores the visual cues that activate a fisher's response to an anticipated hazard. We consider experienced fishers uncertified risk 'experts', whose recurring first-hand experience informs their expertise. The goal of this study is to explore how closely 'expert' perceptions align with drowning incidents and to contrast their perceptions with the risk of 'freak waves', a prevailing framing used by the media and government in response to drownings. We explore experienced fishers' testimonies, demonstrating their attribution of drownings to inexperienced fishers' inability to perceive the absence of risk during longer wave periods. During longer wave periods, the wave length and time between overtopping waves increases, giving the sea a more 'safe' appearance. To compare expert testimonies with drowning data, a wave hindcasting model was used to identify what, if any, mean coastal conditions fluctuated when fishers drowned. This was done by comparing the daily mean significant wave height, direction, and period (2005-2018) in two drowning black spot locations with the mean daily values when fishers drowned. Results show that the wave period at both sites was longer than average at the time of drownings, supporting expert perceptions of longer wave periods being associated with fishers drowning. We argue experiential expert's knowledge could be incorporated into existing risk management to accommodate the ways that experienced and inexperienced fishers anticipate and perceive risk during longer wave periods.