Study: Nuclear programs don't up proliferation risk

摘要

The fall 2017 edition of the journal International Security features a study suggesting that contrary to popular belief, a country's having a nuclear energy program does not notably increase the odds that nuclear weapons will be sought or acquired. The study, conducted at Dartmouth College, analyzes the relationship between such programs and nuclear proliferation from 1954 to 2000. Among the findings are that out of more than 15 countries that have sought nuclear weapons since the first power reactor came on line, only five-Argentina, Brazil, India, Iran, and Pakistan-began pursuing a weapons program after a nuclear energy program had already been undertaken. According to the study, most countries either pursued nuclear weapons with a more covert approach or had already begun their efforts to acquire nuclear weapons before starting a nuclear energy program. In addition, the study found, countries that pursued nuclear weapons under the cover of an energy program have not been substantially more likely to acquire those weapons when compared with countries that sought nuclear weapons without an energy program.