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摘要

Russell Crowe will win an Academy Award for his portrayal of mathematician John Nash in A Beautiful Mind. The film's director, Ron Howard, will win the award for best director. Ian McKellen will take Best Supporting Actor. But Judi Dench can forget it. Says who? Says a new way of predicting the future with a stunningly impressive track record. From film awards to presidential elections to scientific and technological advances, it has picked winners with uncanny reliability. And where do these amazing insights come from? People like you. Those predictions of this year's Oscars, for example, come from thousands of ordinary punters who are interested enough in films to play a Web-based game called the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX). Players who reckon they know who'll win the Best Actor Oscar can buy shares in him using fake "Hollywood dollars". The higher the demand, the more they'll have to fork out. But it could be worth it: come Oscar day, players with a big investment in the winner stand to gain vast amounts of―well, nothing much, apart from kudos.