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Likelihood-Based Inferences under Isolation by Distance: Two-Dimensional Habitats and Confidence Intervals

机译:距离隔离下基于似然性的推论:二维栖息地和置信区间

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Likelihood-based methods of inference of population parameters from genetic data in structured populations have been implemented but still little tested in large networks of populations. In this work, a previous software implementation of inference in linear habitats is extended to two-dimensional habitats, and the coverage properties of confidence intervals are analyzed in both cases. Both standard likelihood and an efficient approximation are considered. The effects of misspecification of mutation model and dispersal distribution, and of spatial binning of samples, are considered. In the absence of model misspecification, the estimators have low bias, low mean square error, and the coverage properties of confidence intervals are consistent with theoretical expectations. Inferences of dispersal parameters and of the mutation rate are sensitive to misspecification or to approximations inherent to the coalescent algorithms used. In particular, coalescent approximations are not appropriate to infer the shape of the dispersal distribution. However, inferences of the neighborhood parameter (or of the product of population density and mean square dispersal rate) are generally robust with respect to complicating factors, such as misspecification of the mutation process and of the shape of the dispersal distribution, and with respect to spatial binning of samples. Likelihood inferences appear feasible in moderately sized networks of populations (up to 400 populations in this work), and they are more efficient than previous moment-based spatial regression method in realistic conditions.
机译:基于似然性的结构化人群遗传数据推断人群参数的方法已经实施,但在大型人群网络中仍未进行测试。在这项工作中,将线性栖息地中推理的先前软件实现扩展到了二维栖息地,并且在两种情况下都分析了置信区间的覆盖范围。同时考虑了标准似然和有效近似。考虑突变模型和散布分布的错误指定以及样本的空间装箱的影响。在没有模型错误指定的情况下,估计量具有低偏差,低均方误差,并且置信区间的覆盖范围与理论预期一致。分散参数和突变率的推论对错误指定或所用合并算法固有的近似值很敏感。特别地,合并近似不适用于推断分散分布的形状。但是,就复杂因素而言,例如突变过程的错误指定和分散分布的形状,以及关于样本的空间分箱。在中等规模的人口网络中(在这项工作中最多为400个人口),似然性推断似乎是可行的,并且在现实条件下比以前基于矩的空间回归方法更有效。

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