A rare East Indian Ocean autumn season tropical cut-off low: impacts and a high-resolution modelling study

摘要

There are two aims of this study. The first is to provide a synoptic description of the lifecycle and impacts of a seasonally rare but intense cut-off low of tropical origin that developed off the northwest coast of Australia, during the Southern Hemisphere autumn months of late April/early May, 2005. The second, and more important, part of this study is an assessment of the capacity of a state-of-the-science numerical model, assimilating all available satellite-derived observational data, to predict the track, intensity, duration, and severe weather that occurred during the life cycle of the cut-off low. The system was unusual in that its initial development occurred over tropical waters and was associated with a strong and highly involuted subtropical jetstream, generating a cloud band that produced record 24 h rainfall totals in northwest Western Australia for this time of the year. The cut-off low then underwent further deepening which produced more unseasonable heavy rainfall. Confirmed tornado reports occurred over the populous southwest corner of Western Australia.