The future of Trident

摘要

In an excellent report, entitled Continuity/change: rethinking options for Trident replacement, Dr Nick Ritchie (2010), a Research Fellow at the Department of Peace Studies, University of Bradford, discusses the potential for options between a like-for-like replacement and unilateral nuclear disarmament and concludes that:rnThe key to opening up some of these options is ending the current operational posture of 'continuous-at-sea deterrence' (CASD). Ending CASD will require rethinking the necessity of 100% assured retaliation and invulnerability to a 'bolt from the blue' strategic attack, a realistic assessment of the impact of a reduced readiness posture on 'crisis stability", and a reassessment of the level required to constitute a 'minimum deterrent". It will also require detailed analysis of the training and capability management structures necessary to operate the Trident system at various levels of reduced readiness over a long period of time and redeploy a nuclear capability within a specified period of time if required to so in a period of international tension. (Ritchie 2010).