Ensemble Climate Projection for Hydro-Meteorological Drought Over a River Basin in Central Highland, Vietnam

摘要

This study focuses on the Hydro-Meteorological Drought assessments by Ensemble Climate Projections from a regional climate model (Weather Research and Forecasting, WRF) that downscaled 3 Global Climate Models under a baseline period (1961-1990) and under a future scenario A2 for 2071-2100. The Meteorological Drought is assessed using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) while the Hydrological Drought is analyzed by using both the semi-distributed hydrology model SWAT and Standardized Runoff Index (SRI). The catchment under study is a small river basin lying on the Central Highland area of Vietnam. This area is the source for perennial plantation which produces most of the coffee for Vietnam making it the world's second most exporter of coffee next to Brazil. Additionally, this region is also one of the important sources for hydropower of Vietnam and one of the main tributaries for the Mekong river at the downstream. This region has been known prone to drought, especially during dry seasons of March and April.Therefore, simulating drought for this area is significant to study the water supply and water balance for the region for future planning and adaptation.