The Russian Hybrid War in the Ukraine Crisis: Some Characteristics and Implications

摘要

This paper examines some characteristics of the Russian hybrid war in the Ukraine crisis since 2014, and then explores its implications. The hybrid approach is designed to generate "plausible deniability," allowing Putin maximal tactical flexibility while avoiding responsibility. Russia's hybrid warfare can be traced with some devices: propaganda (including cyber attack), tactics, the militants, and weapons. The meaning of the Russian hybrid war in Ukraine is focused on the three points. Firstly, Russia's new approach, " hybrid war" cannot be considered independent of a long professional experience of Putin's KGB operations before becoming a politician. Secondly, hybrid type warfare in Ukraine is not the first time for Russia. Putin previously applied his new kind of war almost unnoticed to the small and remote Georgia and Transnistria, but it cannot go without being understood when applied on a scale as large and visible as Ukraine. Thirdly, Russia's actions in Ukraine have exploded the notion that expansive communications technologies and economic interdependence were fostering a kind of grand bargain. The Ukraine crisis suggests that world history after the Cold War is at an inflection point. In a world of hybrid warfare or non-linear conflict, we need to find new forms of deterrence.