Security Challenges for South Korea and the Future of the ROK-U.S. Alliance

摘要

The Republic of Korea, now more than ever, faces more security challenges, strategic dilemmas, and policy tasks. North Korea's Kim Jong Un, after consolidating his power base internally and with his nuclear and ICBM programs completed, has begun negotiations with President Donald Trump of the United States to guarantee his regime security. Although a reconciliatory atmosphere within inter-Korean relations continues cautiously after the PyeongChang Winter Olympics and the Panmunjom Inter-Korean Summit, many issues remain before tensions disappear from the Korean Peninsula. The U.S.-DPRK Summit in Singapore resulted in an overall direction of "efforts" to resolve the North Korean nuclear problem. However, Korean people, well aware of North Korean behavior in the past, are in no hurry to predict its resolution. The trade war between the United States and China, being a global power struggle at its core, might become fiercer until it reaches climax. The Trump administration has ended sequestration-a legacy from the Obama administration-and significantly increased its defense budget, while slashing foreign aid and demanding that major allies, such as NATO member states and the ROK, take on a bigger burden of shared defense costs. The United States seeks to cement its superpower status for the future. China is undertaking some countermeasures, i.e., continued defense investments; a second sea trial for its aircraft carrier, which is a part of a wider program to acquire ten aircraft carriers by 2049; building military bases on artificial islands in the South China Sea; strengthening its economic and military partnership with Russia; and dramatically expanding its cyber forces. As the growth of Chinese military power has become a concern for countries in the region, the ROK confronts a particularly notable strategic dilemma. This is because inter-Korean relations, the ROK-U.S. alliance, and ROK-China relations are intricately overlapping in all areas. For the ROK, the security alliance with the United States continues to be a critical security asset.