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Periodic autoregressive models for time series with integrated seasonality

机译:综合季节性的时间序列定期自回归模型

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A comprehensive seasonally integrated periodic autoregressive model is suggested which is shown to be flexible enough to include both the stochastic seasonal integrated and random trigonometric polynomial-based models. The demonstration of the equivalence between the two approaches is the objective of two theorems that are stated and proved in some details. A nice advantage of our model building procedure is that it is able to provide the user not only with a detailed model for data description and forecasting purpose but in addition with a hint at the presence of seasonal unit roots. The model which is illustrated in the present paper may be considered parsimonious, i.e. the number of estimated parameters, for a given goodness-of-fit criterion, is taken as low as possible, in two ways. First, by imposing unit roots and seasonal unit roots so that some estimated parameters are replaced by a differencing operator with fixed coefficients, and, second, by adopting a subset periodic autoregressive model, so that some parameters do not need to be estimated as they are constrained to equal zero. The effectiveness of our model is highlighted by an extensive simulation experiment that supports our claim that the model building procedure described here may be of good use as well for checking the existence of seasonal unit roots. Applications to real-world time series data sets are reported, and promising results are obtained that allow us to suggest that the seasonally integrated periodic autoregressive model may be safely used for modelling a wide range of seasonal time series data. In addition, well-known widely used tests, such as HEGY and the Taylor variance ratio test, are shown to provide us with results that generally agree with our findings.
机译:建议综合季节性整合的周期性自回归模型,其被证明是足够灵活的,以包括随机季节性集成和随机三角多项式的模型。两种方法之间的等同物的演示是两个定理的目标,这些定理在一些细节中证明。我们的模型构建程序的一个很好的优势在于它不仅可以为用户提供详细的数据描述和预测目的,而且还提供了在季节性单位根部存在的提示。本文中示出的模型可以被认为是解析的,即给定的拟合原标准的估计参数的数量尽可能低,以两种方式被视为低。首先,通过施加单位根和季节性单元根,使得一些估计的参数由具有固定系数的差分运算符代替,并且通过采用子集周期性自回归模型,因此不需要估计一些参数约束为等于零。我们的模型的有效性是由广泛的仿真实验强调,支持我们的声明,这里描述的模型建筑程序可能具有良好的用途,以及检查季节单位根的存在。报告了对现实世界时间序列数据集的应用,并获得了有希望的结果,使我们建议季节性集成的周期性自回归模型可以安全地用于建模各种季节性时间序列数据。此外,众所周知的广泛使用的测试,例如Hegy和Taylor方差比试验,显示为我们提供通常与我们的研究结果一致的结果。

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