Prediction of Spacecraft Project Duration: Adaptation of Markoff Chain Analysis

摘要

In research and development projects like spacecraft projects, many activities bear uncertainty on its progress and completion, chance of rework and going back to previous stages of the project. In predicting the time of completion, the progress and the total duration of such projects, existing project duration prediction models do not come closer to reality. These models, due to the limitation imposed by assumptions underlying such models, can not account for the rework occurs in projects and/ or going back of the project activities to its earlier stages. In this paper, using the stochastic ability (through transition probability matrix) of Markoff chain analysis, a model is adapted for predicting spacecraft project duration. The model has been partially validated using actual data from one of the INSAT-3 missions. The results are compared with the results generated on the same data using prevailing major models. The application of Markoff model shows significant improvement over the existing models. Further, the managerial implications of the application of this model, specifically from project control point of view also has been touched upon.